0x99F3fF7b96b54cFaD33d3E8c38F511963a6b87eb-1779465868907
0x99f3ff7b96b54cfad33d3e8c38f511963a6b87eb
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $96.0k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $7.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.743 | 0.940 | $2.5k | +$530.06 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.927 | 0.950 | $1.8k | +$43.61 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.986 | $1.1k | +$132.76 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No | 0.973 | 0.995 | $1.1k | +$24.31 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.285 | $982.76 | −$17.24 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · No | 0.048 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1000.00 |
| Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election? · Yes | 0.714 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.782US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.174Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$947.69at 0.617Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?
- +$495.83at 0.345Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$451.72at 0.525US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 14:09 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999999 | $1000.00 |
| 09-12 11:26 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.7850330953 | $1000.00 |
| 08-31 20:08 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | BUY | 0.5199999998 | $500.00 |
| 08-31 18:40 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | BUY | 0.6599999998 | $1000.00 |
| 08-31 18:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999993 | $1000.00 |
| 08-31 15:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9729999992 | $1.1k |
| 08-11 18:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.0484850495 | $100.00 |
| 08-07 22:57 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9574961321 | $1.6k |
| 08-02 20:15 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4699999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-26 21:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.5253673312 | $500.00 |
| 07-26 20:56 | Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-07-26? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $100.00 |
| 07-26 20:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8239999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-09 22:05 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8499999992 | $1000.00 |
| 06-28 12:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $50.00 |
| 06-28 11:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | BUY | 0.8399999993 | $50.00 |