PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

erlichbachmn

0x999f61d400da1804af3c250b3236a60101c3addb

Realised P&L
$-9.6k
Volume
$210.6k
Markets traded
160
Open portfolio
$2.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded160
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.0800.055$567.88−$258.13
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3000.255$316.96−$55.94
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026? · Yes0.8350.281$281.56−$555.11
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4190.225$202.85−$174.92
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4600.445$146.41−$4.93
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? · Yes0.4200.125$125.00−$295.00
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? · Yes0.1020.403$102.40+$76.40
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? · No0.9680.978$76.21+$0.74
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · Yes0.1100.085$75.73−$22.27
Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4180.295$72.72−$30.28
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2430.155$65.88−$37.40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · Yes0.7460.070$63.04−$613.28
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.9400.598$58.55−$33.56
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? · Yes0.6440.060$40.57−$395.32
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? · Yes0.4910.090$36.63−$163.37

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 00:30Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2026?BUY0.417820841$103.00
10-30 06:14Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.3834779178$60.00
10-30 06:12Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.5885294827$300.00
10-30 06:00Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.08$826.00
10-30 02:34Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?SELL0.1173224201$85.79
10-30 01:15Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?BUY0.136756956$100.00
10-30 00:56AWS service disrupted by October 31?BUY0.5199999792$2.00
10-30 00:56AWS service disrupted by November 30?BUY0.5899999145$4.00
10-30 00:55AWS service disrupted by November 30?BUY0.5870646527$10.00
10-30 00:36Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?BUY0.01$10.00
10-30 00:35NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?BUY0.11$98.00
10-30 00:34USD1 depeg by December 31?BUY0.2299999993$10.00
10-30 00:34GHO depeg by December 31?BUY0.0497765035$10.00
10-30 00:34USDS depeg by December 31?BUY0.0637083674$10.00
10-30 00:33USDTb depeg by December 31?BUY0.0685490228$10.00