erlichbachmn
0x999f61d400da1804af3c250b3236a60101c3addb
- Realised P&L
- $-9.6k
- Volume
- $210.6k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.491France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half
- +$780.94at 0.180Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?
- +$625.86at 0.460England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$519.35at 0.661France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5
- +$432.45at 0.490Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 00:30 | Trump declares a national emergency by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.417820841 | $103.00 |
| 10-30 06:14 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3834779178 | $60.00 |
| 10-30 06:12 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5885294827 | $300.00 |
| 10-30 06:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $826.00 |
| 10-30 02:34 | Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026? | SELL | 0.1173224201 | $85.79 |
| 10-30 01:15 | Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026? | BUY | 0.136756956 | $100.00 |
| 10-30 00:56 | AWS service disrupted by October 31? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 10-30 00:56 | AWS service disrupted by November 30? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $4.00 |
| 10-30 00:55 | AWS service disrupted by November 30? | BUY | 0.5870646527 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 00:36 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.01 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 00:35 | NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $98.00 |
| 10-30 00:34 | USD1 depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 00:34 | GHO depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.0497765035 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 00:34 | USDS depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.0637083674 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 00:33 | USDTb depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.0685490228 | $10.00 |