dondonki
0x974bfa0ee3c590c16a8a6ddc9e09cf76ccb1c237
- Realised P&L
- $8.21
- Volume
- $971.19
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $3.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.585 | 0.584 | $1.68 | −$0.00 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.570 | 0.795 | $1.51 | +$0.43 |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.97at 0.250US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.59at 0.341Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$2.39at 0.390Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
- +$2.24at 0.460S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5?
- +$2.24at 0.420Bruins vs. Blue Jackets
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 10:43 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.5849999739 | $1.68 |
| 09-24 17:49 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5699999525 | $1.08 |
| 08-03 09:01 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799997268 | $1.77 |
| 07-30 15:29 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.05 |
| 07-04 05:44 | Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7799996967 | $1.44 |
| 06-28 06:18 | Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2699999328 | $2.53 |
| 06-04 11:54 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.99 |
| 05-23 12:50 | Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season? | BUY | 0.6499998055 | $2.84 |
| 05-17 09:30 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.5299999448 | $1.92 |
| 05-15 12:10 | Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.3299999399 | $2.80 |
| 05-03 08:50 | Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? | BUY | 0.2999998512 | $1.21 |
| 04-15 08:18 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599998244 | $1.31 |
| 04-12 16:01 | Bruins vs. Blue Jackets | BUY | 0.419999943 | $1.62 |
| 04-11 15:19 | Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 07:44 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | BUY | 0.3899999363 | $1.53 |