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0x967a4186b41bdedac9b45c39c040fded8f6b98b3
- Realised P&L
- $69.50
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $438.25
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.935 | $97.40 | −$2.60 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.960 | $57.83 | +$7.83 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.840 | 0.935 | $55.65 | +$5.65 |
| Will Minnesota have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.863 | $54.62 | +$4.62 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.670 | 0.985 | $51.40 | +$16.40 |
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · No | 0.532 | 0.630 | $47.37 | +$7.37 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.330 | 0.984 | $44.73 | +$29.73 |
| Will Minnesota have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $21.46 | −$3.54 |
| Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.255 | $7.79 | −$3.21 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.913 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.18 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.12at 0.840Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
- +$33.46at 0.130US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
- +$16.95at 0.855Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
- +$9.72at 0.720Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$8.20at 0.924Becca Good charged by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 11:45 | Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | BUY | 0.5320183896 | $40.00 |
| 10-01 16:21 | Will Minnesota have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.3599999948 | $11.00 |
| 10-01 16:20 | Will Minnesota have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.5999999952 | $25.00 |
| 10-01 16:20 | Will Minnesota have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 16:16 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999969 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 18:47 | Trump alleges foreign election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.8599999862 | $20.00 |
| 05-07 01:41 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.8399999879 | $50.00 |
| 04-21 20:18 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999992 | $36.18 |
| 04-21 20:18 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 04-21 20:17 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999662 | $5.00 |
| 04-21 20:16 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 13:03 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.6703658798 | $35.00 |
| 04-12 13:03 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299999886 | $15.00 |
| 04-01 20:09 | Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 04-01 20:08 | Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |