parliament-568
0x9640cde23375f6eaa5abe3cf769043b078eb283e
- Realised P&L
- $135.01
- Volume
- $40.1k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $156.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.115 | $71.88 | −$28.13 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $51.56 | +$1.56 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.021 | $16.54 | −$83.46 |
| China coup attempt before 2027? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.041 | $16.20 | +$6.20 |
| Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$600.00at 0.250US military action against Iran before July?
- +$381.90at 0.367US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
- +$357.00at 0.403Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?
- +$143.51at 0.640US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$61.80at 0.380Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 22:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 06-13 16:18 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 06-13 16:12 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $100.00 |
| 04-07 14:39 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 04-07 14:38 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.2788023129 | $85.00 |
| 04-07 14:38 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? | BUY | 0.01811565 | $60.00 |
| 04-06 12:07 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $401.51 |
| 04-02 19:56 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $258.00 |
| 03-26 05:58 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.0299999994 | $50.00 |
| 03-26 05:56 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999989 | $100.00 |
| 03-01 16:19 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 02-25 09:25 | US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3673790814 | $221.78 |
| 02-25 09:24 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.10078662 | $151.18 |
| 01-10 07:28 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.257999997 | $50.00 |
| 01-10 07:28 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |