amqu
0x951aca9fdbeb53f235789ad7a6a068d14fa73bf0
- Realised P&L
- $98.98
- Volume
- $9.9k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $574.22
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? · No | 0.919 | 0.970 | $178.44 | +$9.34 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.825 | $167.09 | +$7.09 |
| Will voter turnout be less than 62% in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No | 0.770 | 0.935 | $93.50 | +$16.50 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.745 | $84.11 | +$14.11 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.950 | $51.08 | +$1.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.54at 0.209Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$63.28at 0.579Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
- +$29.55at 0.717Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on January 20?
- +$23.51at 0.259Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner?
- +$17.64at 0.819Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 14:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6199999989 | $70.00 |
| 10-13 21:27 | OPEC dissolves in 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $108.02 |
| 10-11 21:44 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 12? | SELL | 0.46 | $46.00 |
| 10-11 14:39 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 12? | BUY | 0.581 | $58.10 |
| 10-08 11:59 | Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | SELL | 0.2 | $102.00 |
| 10-06 19:16 | Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | BUY | 0.18 | $86.40 |
| 10-04 19:56 | European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | BUY | 0.9299999976 | $50.00 |
| 10-03 23:00 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899999991 | $160.00 |
| 10-03 22:02 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.94 | $165.95 |
| 10-03 22:01 | No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? | BUY | 0.9192665172 | $160.00 |
| 10-01 21:24 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.73 | $165.91 |
| 09-20 22:09 | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5664314805 | $100.00 |
| 09-20 22:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4399999986 | $100.00 |
| 09-04 12:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.440600024 | $73.43 |
| 07-14 21:34 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.9289999997 | $150.00 |