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Traders

GaioMario

0x94d0f4a485b7670d244224b33e1659a8b1959e65

Realised P&L
$10.2k
Volume
$426.2k
Markets traded
319
Open portfolio
$27.4k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded319
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · No0.7570.815$3.5k+$252.43
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? · No0.7870.900$3.3k+$415.59
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · No0.8030.815$2.4k+$34.70
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.7400.620$2.2k$419.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.6610.850$1.9k+$429.61
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · No0.6980.630$1.4k$151.69
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No0.6600.845$1.3k+$282.78
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · No0.6380.850$1.1k+$285.45
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No0.2670.465$1.1k+$460.79
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · No0.8940.947$1.0k+$56.74
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.6030.610$994.35+$12.21
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31? · No0.8360.805$953.12$36.42
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? · No0.7900.940$940.00+$150.00
Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? · No0.7960.770$938.36$32.12
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? · No0.8910.952$889.15+$56.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 14:49Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?SELL0.9600251678$572.18
07-30 14:12Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?BUY0.87$104.40
07-29 22:11Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?SELL0.465346212$39.99
07-28 15:37Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?SELL0.9664227155$896.84
07-27 18:49Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?SELL0.975544086$90.73
07-27 14:34Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?SELL0.976$750.54
07-25 10:14Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?BUY0.7759804213$800.00
07-25 08:33Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?BUY0.7925640075$388.00
07-20 22:09Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?SELL0.045$45.00
07-19 21:03Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?SELL0.22$44.41
07-19 21:03Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?SELL0.51$329.92
07-18 17:13Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?BUY0.4431739386$150.00
07-18 17:12Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?BUY0.6799999989$126.00
07-18 14:03Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?SELL0.7147569964$257.96
07-18 07:27Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31?SELL0.1107875$22.16