GaioMario
0x94d0f4a485b7670d244224b33e1659a8b1959e65
- Realised P&L
- $10.2k
- Volume
- $426.2k
- Markets traded
- 319
- Open portfolio
- $27.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded319
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$596.69at 0.778Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?
- +$556.52at 0.876Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
- +$513.36at 0.396Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
- +$501.22at 0.668Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$498.68at 0.567Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 14:49 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9600251678 | $572.18 |
| 07-30 14:12 | Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $104.40 |
| 07-29 22:11 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | SELL | 0.465346212 | $39.99 |
| 07-28 15:37 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9664227155 | $896.84 |
| 07-27 18:49 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.975544086 | $90.73 |
| 07-27 14:34 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.976 | $750.54 |
| 07-25 10:14 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7759804213 | $800.00 |
| 07-25 08:33 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.7925640075 | $388.00 |
| 07-20 22:09 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.045 | $45.00 |
| 07-19 21:03 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $44.41 |
| 07-19 21:03 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $329.92 |
| 07-18 17:13 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4431739386 | $150.00 |
| 07-18 17:12 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999989 | $126.00 |
| 07-18 14:03 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7147569964 | $257.96 |
| 07-18 07:27 | Yevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by July 31? | SELL | 0.1107875 | $22.16 |