Mwhale
0x9419d77566df79c2f8c6679c9933c2ac76aea40f
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $4.22M
- Markets traded
- 515
- Open portfolio
- $28.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded515
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.888 | 0.976 | $10.8k | +$964.26 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.973 | $7.3k | +$694.56 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.859 | 0.895 | $6.2k | +$249.78 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.871 | 0.875 | $1.9k | +$8.43 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.968 | $1.1k | +$36.55 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.905 | $866.15 | +$23.93 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.357 | 0.135 | $218.62 | −$359.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.921US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
- +$1.9kat 0.842US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
- +$1.6kat 0.980France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$1.6kat 0.898Iran leadership change by March 13?
- +$897.82at 0.947US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 20:50 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $21.49 |
| 09-28 06:21 | Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $153.28 |
| 09-24 16:21 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $22.81 |
| 09-12 16:04 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $21.30 |
| 09-12 16:04 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $21.30 |
| 09-12 16:04 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $21.30 |
| 09-12 16:03 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 09-12 16:03 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $91.95 |
| 09-12 15:56 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $43.80 |
| 09-12 15:49 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.77 | $624.67 |
| 09-12 15:48 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $11.66 |
| 09-12 15:46 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.18 |
| 09-12 15:46 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | SELL | 0.6595336095 | $533.27 |
| 09-10 14:43 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $74.00 |
| 09-02 16:40 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $167.10 |