aviax
0x939a3dd64198c59af7d1a0d4022fdb9cfd2d824c
- Realised P&L
- $0.72
- Volume
- $41.75
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $32.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $70 in 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.850 | $5.25 | +$0.25 |
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.976 | 0.971 | $4.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.855 | $4.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.935 | $4.67 | +$0.07 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.845 | $2.98 | −$0.02 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.875 | $2.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.765 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.72at 0.856Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 00:12 | Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-26 00:07 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999433 | $3.00 |
| 09-26 00:06 | US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 00:04 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $3.00 |
| 09-25 04:04 | Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or above $70 in 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999741 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 03:47 | Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 09-25 03:45 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 03:44 | Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | BUY | 0.9759999656 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 03:31 | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |