SebasGimV
0x934948c96420a7ad25a195ad8ebc01407c218817
- Realised P&L
- $223.70
- Volume
- $35.3k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.981 | 0.928 | $463.53 | −$26.21 |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.989 | 0.980 | $438.78 | −$4.26 |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.991 | $377.57 | +$8.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.825 | $330.00 | +$18.00 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No | 0.880 | 0.825 | $330.00 | −$22.00 |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.953 | 0.981 | $202.09 | +$5.77 |
| Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.964 | 0.956 | $126.19 | −$1.04 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.938 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$187.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$97.65at 0.840US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$74.90at 0.851Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
- +$54.00at 0.730Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
- +$51.23at 0.952Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
- +$50.00at 0.875Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 17:19 | Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.953 | $196.32 |
| 09-13 16:28 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.989 | $443.03 |
| 09-13 15:48 | Will $LAPTOP reach $10 by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $331.33 |
| 08-09 16:15 | Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9639 | $127.23 |
| 08-09 16:03 | Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $290.10 |
| 08-09 15:58 | Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? | BUY | 0.974 | $194.80 |
| 08-09 15:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.996 | $498.00 |
| 08-06 15:47 | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $40.70 |
| 08-05 14:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.964 | $192.80 |
| 07-16 12:21 | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7 | $140.00 |
| 07-16 12:21 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |
| 07-16 12:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 07-11 15:10 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.989 | $131.52 |
| 07-10 17:45 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $194.00 |
| 07-10 13:52 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $394.00 |