FroggieTheClown
0x932b2b81d2bdbe9d0967a6ff73162e4bfcb7b4da
- Realised P&L
- $-119.30
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $91.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.40at 0.190Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$17.52at 0.528Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
- +$7.66at 0.514Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
- +$6.90at 0.420US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.63at 0.528Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 00:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 07-10 20:08 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.4899999814 | $10.00 |
| 07-03 15:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 15:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 03:45 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2089999755 | $5.00 |
| 06-25 03:45 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.3839999625 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 22:25 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 05-28 08:02 | Ebola case in the US by June 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 22:55 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.8509999939 | $5.00 |
| 05-16 19:00 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.4679999802 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 18:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 18:06 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $10.00 |
| 04-29 18:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 18:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 04-29 18:04 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999646 | $5.00 |