rosenicholas
0x916a5daebb728743581f945478bcb731d987a599
- Realised P&L
- $59.91
- Volume
- $10.8k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $77.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · No | 0.695 | 0.420 | $22.58 | −$14.78 |
| Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.999 | $19.37 | +$2.89 |
| Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.635 | $19.04 | −$6.75 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? · No | 0.610 | 0.440 | $16.16 | −$6.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.84at 0.730Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 27?
- +$9.20at 0.750Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 24?
- +$5.00at 0.730Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
- +$4.90at 0.768Will FUT Esports Win the CS2 EWC 2026?
- +$3.68at 0.967Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:48 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9969999998 | $4.81 |
| 01-30 12:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999818 | $4.72 |
| 01-30 12:19 | Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.37 |
| 01-30 11:59 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.77 |
| 01-30 11:52 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? | BUY | 0.996 | $55.14 |
| 12-30 09:39 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.29 |
| 12-30 01:46 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.72 |
| 12-29 22:49 | Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.32 |
| 12-29 22:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.13 |
| 12-29 21:38 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.92 |
| 10-30 22:25 | Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9845768725 | $25.34 |
| 10-30 17:32 | Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.04 |
| 09-29 18:38 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.61 |
| 09-29 05:15 | Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $18.28 |
| 09-29 04:21 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $14.33 |