0x9152E4C81C58179949DE32d375efa2cB3a4369a5-1768161107298
0x9152e4c81c58179949de32d375efa2cb3a4369a5
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $46.5k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.895 | $1.3k | +$22.50 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.976 | $1.2k | +$55.78 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.892 | 0.905 | $1.2k | +$17.18 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · No | 0.903 | 0.925 | $990.33 | +$23.48 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.913 | 0.940 | $933.52 | +$26.79 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No | 0.924 | 0.925 | $647.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.875 | $119.00 | +$12.92 |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027? · No | 0.892 | 0.954 | $75.68 | +$4.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.970Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$253.12at 0.831Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$245.57at 0.848Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$101.12at 0.687Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
- +$44.53at 0.796 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 08:59 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.971 | $1.5k |
| 09-23 12:19 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $881.83 |
| 09-23 12:17 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.985 | $3.2k |
| 09-19 09:40 | US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $36.11 |
| 08-21 10:40 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $76.00 |
| 08-15 14:50 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $118.37 |
| 07-15 11:22 | US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $34.00 |
| 07-09 10:26 | US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $12.70 |
| 07-09 10:25 | US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $95.68 |
| 06-25 07:20 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 06-24 12:34 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $49.85 |
| 06-24 07:49 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $39.88 |
| 06-24 07:49 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $39.88 |
| 04-02 06:48 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.8499998878 | $3.03 |
| 03-10 16:02 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $179.46 |