PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

WINMALE

0x90817debc5c77bb6fc1e645b84b775d042134774

Realised P&L
$334.74
Volume
$11.3k
Markets traded
59
Open portfolio
$379.76

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded59
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration51.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample32 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3660.205$177.37$139.23
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.2190.555$75.63+$45.82
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? · No0.3740.695$45.17+$20.88
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.8100.875$21.60+$1.60
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? · No0.3900.655$19.00+$7.68
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · No0.0620.072$18.26+$2.52
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes0.0990.070$6.34$2.60
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution? · Anthropic0.3600.255$5.24$2.16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.2140.170$4.98$1.32
China coup attempt before 2027? · Yes0.0490.047$4.03$0.17
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0600.037$2.14$1.28
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET · Up0.1700.000$0.00$3.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET · Down0.5100.000$0.00$1.00
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? · Yes0.0550.000$0.00$2.00
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? · Yes0.2680.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-13 02:04Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?SELL0.5554971164$160.86
09-13 02:04Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.0642172523$15.00
09-12 01:24Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?SELL0.3253746663$93.83
09-11 15:07Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.3222108535$12.41
09-11 15:02Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.32$19.20
09-11 15:01Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.32$9.60
09-11 14:59Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.32$70.40
09-11 14:57Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.31$8.99
09-11 14:57Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.31$8.99
09-11 14:23Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.037$0.74
09-11 14:15OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize Solution?BUY0.36$7.40
09-11 14:12Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?BUY0.38$9.50
09-11 14:12Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?BUY0.39$11.31
09-11 14:11Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?BUY0.37$14.80
09-11 13:57Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.34$34.00