0x8fe685eb783a1e34381adcfd13111fda8f2deca0
0x8fe685eb783a1e34381adcfd13111fda8f2deca0
- Realised P&L
- $33.81
- Volume
- $848.19
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $97.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.891 | 0.871 | $23.47 | −$0.55 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.845 | $19.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.161 | 0.130 | $19.32 | −$4.70 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.155 | $18.24 | −$1.76 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.466 | 0.300 | $6.17 | −$3.42 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.155 | $6.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 9? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $5.06 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.27at 0.459Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 24?
- +$19.73at 0.552Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?
- +$11.56at 0.422Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on September 24?
- +$7.47at 0.644Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$5.23at 0.651Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.4699999938 | $6.04 |
| 10-09 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.63 |
| 10-09 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.46 | $0.92 |
| 10-09 07:54 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 9? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.05 |
| 10-08 14:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1609999996 | $24.02 |
| 10-08 13:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |
| 10-08 13:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |
| 10-05 15:00 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.847 | $10.86 |
| 10-05 14:59 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.847 | $21.18 |
| 10-04 13:03 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8909999876 | $24.02 |
| 10-04 13:02 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6349999942 | $24.02 |
| 10-01 08:13 | Ethereum Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.5699999879 | $17.86 |
| 10-01 08:11 | Ethereum Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.57 | $5.70 |
| 10-01 08:10 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.460355662 | $7.16 |
| 10-01 08:10 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |