Ethan-Pier
0x8fd0e409b8a0492433b7fe871e873b0b6f7d3c39
- Realised P&L
- $-105.70
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $45.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? · Yes | 0.391 | 0.420 | $20.82 | +$1.44 |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.180 | $10.07 | −$0.56 |
| Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.425 | $8.86 | −$1.46 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $6.20 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.72at 0.339Will The Black Ball win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?
- +$-0.89at 0.421Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.97at 0.419Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?
- +$-1.11at 0.321Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
- +$-1.74at 0.110Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 09:40 | Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $1.72 |
| 09-24 09:40 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $12.01 |
| 09-24 09:40 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.69 |
| 09-24 09:40 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.21 | $21.28 |
| 09-24 09:39 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.71 |
| 09-24 09:39 | Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.50 |
| 09-24 09:39 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 09-24 09:08 | Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 09-24 08:24 | Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $7.92 |
| 09-24 08:24 | Will The Black Ball win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.329 | $11.27 |
| 09-24 07:26 | Will The Black Ball win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3769999849 | $2.00 |
| 09-24 07:25 | Will The Black Ball win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.3289999659 | $2.93 |
| 09-24 07:25 | Will The Black Ball win Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.308087477 | $3.41 |
| 09-24 05:08 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 09-24 00:40 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |