0x8f55785f2fa5c2518d4eaed098bde8fff545f203
- Realised P&L
- $26.84
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 72
- Open portfolio
- $228.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded72
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$61.43at 0.389Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$23.66at 0.549Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
- +$22.42at 0.472Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?
- +$20.13at 0.332Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?
- +$11.69at 0.300Will Francesca Hong win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 18:18 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999981 | $9.64 |
| 09-08 21:49 | Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.8499999957 | $9.94 |
| 09-08 21:18 | Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.7299999853 | $9.91 |
| 09-08 18:26 | Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.7199999942 | $9.91 |
| 09-08 16:55 | Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | BUY | 0.8399999966 | $9.94 |
| 09-07 06:37 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.5695485886 | $9.82 |
| 09-07 06:34 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | SELL | 0.52 | $5.94 |
| 09-06 17:09 | Will CDU win less than 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.97 | $9.94 |
| 09-06 15:29 | Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.459999984 | $9.77 |
| 09-06 11:24 | Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.459999984 | $9.77 |
| 09-05 16:13 | Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%? | BUY | 0.4299999793 | $9.77 |
| 09-01 20:12 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.869999993 | $9.94 |
| 08-29 23:59 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | BUY | 0.519999983 | $9.78 |
| 08-29 12:17 | Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.94 |
| 08-26 01:07 | Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.7028786197 | $9.87 |