0x8e31fa9662ef93e357846ffbace5b53e7b0e30b1
0x8e31fa9662ef93e357846ffbace5b53e7b0e30b1
- Realised P&L
- $-40.10
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 268
- Open portfolio
- $177.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded268
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.36at 0.141Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
- +$31.78at 0.220US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$20.73at 0.273Will Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally?
- +$19.59at 0.336Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$15.67at 0.180Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 13:19 | Will Trump say "Manhattan" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7902866242 | $4.96 |
| 09-22 13:17 | Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.5 | $0.81 |
| 09-22 13:16 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $2.03 |
| 09-21 09:20 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.75 |
| 09-21 08:09 | Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.30 |
| 09-21 01:42 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.91 |
| 09-20 13:31 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.15 |
| 09-18 19:39 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4094026187 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 18:52 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.89 |
| 09-17 20:28 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.51 |
| 09-17 20:20 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.74 |
| 09-17 06:50 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.09 |
| 09-09 21:20 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.58 |
| 09-07 03:32 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $5.02 |
| 09-05 01:01 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 15? | SELL | 0.84 | $6.09 |