PolyBot

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Traders

mm4ker

0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939

Realised P&L
$50.5k
Volume
$2.68M
Markets traded
389
Open portfolio
$55.5k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded389
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration27.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8500.855$15.1k+$88.25
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7280.835$5.7k+$732.37
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9200.984$4.8k+$310.60
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.7290.765$4.4k+$204.60
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.8090.840$3.7k+$134.35
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.2760.925$3.4k+$2.4k
Iran leadership change by October 31? · No0.8700.945$2.7k+$215.52
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · No0.6600.820$2.6k+$513.88
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4980.225$2.3k$2.8k
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No0.8000.805$2.3k+$15.13
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes0.7420.964$2.1k+$494.14
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.8900.935$1.1k+$50.56
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.8600.855$1.0k$6.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.145$828.57$1.2k
Kash Patel out by December 31? · No0.3710.790$786.25+$417.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 13:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.18$58.71
09-11 13:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.1813343832$3.6k
09-06 17:03Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.0877680518$263.30
09-05 23:35Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.17$134.04
09-05 19:46Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.78$7.80
09-01 09:32Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4099999998$750.00
08-31 18:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.43$713.52
08-31 00:12China x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY0.6799999997$500.00
08-31 00:12Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?BUY0.8899999995$1000.00
08-31 00:09Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?BUY0.86$1.0k
08-30 19:51Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.3499999998$1000.00
08-30 19:35Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.7799999998$88.00
08-30 19:26Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.85$15.0k
08-08 11:53Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.8799999999$250.00
08-08 11:48Iran leadership change by October 31?BUY0.87$2.5k