PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

mm4ker

0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939

Realised P&L
$57.7k
Volume
$2.56M
Markets traded
370
Open portfolio
$47.7k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded370
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.7500.956$19.1k+$4.1k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7280.795$5.5k+$457.71
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.8090.809$3.6k+$1.69
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4980.345$3.6k$1.6k
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.7140.805$3.6k+$401.16
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.2760.747$2.7k+$1.7k
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? · No0.8000.865$2.4k+$183.96
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes0.7420.845$1.9k+$230.31
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? · No0.7600.930$1.5k+$279.61
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.225$1.3k$714.28
Kash Patel out by December 31? · No0.3710.740$736.48+$367.49
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · No0.5490.770$350.53+$100.53
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5850.815$308.04+$87.05
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? · No0.4490.655$291.77+$91.77
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · No0.2000.105$262.50$237.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 12:18Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.7599999998$2.0k
07-26 11:17US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.4989904923$1000.00
07-26 11:15US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?BUY0.4124715248$1000.00
07-24 22:42Iran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY0.6599999978$250.00
07-24 22:40Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?BUY0.7599999999$1.2k
07-24 22:40Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY0.9441896454$2.0k
07-24 22:36Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.8705707782$5.0k
07-24 22:31Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.71$2.6k
07-19 16:03Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.7$400.00
07-14 19:48Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.2000659614$2.0k
07-14 19:41Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.220312822$2.2k
07-14 19:41Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.220620656$2.2k
07-14 19:40Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.2210552$2.2k
07-14 19:39Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.231178302$2.3k
07-12 03:23Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.15459871$1.5k