PolyBot

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Traders

mm4ker

0x8c57f67ac7cc69a4cf96be5747cb2ed63dc9f939

Realised P&L
$54.2k
Volume
$2.72M
Markets traded
389
Open portfolio
$6.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded389
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration59.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.7290.715$4.1k−$82.16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4980.135$1.4k−$3.8k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.095$542.86−$1.5k
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8800.925$262.78+$12.78
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.5850.695$262.72+$41.72
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6790.285$125.94−$174.06
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · Yes0.2300.125$62.50−$52.50
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.6380.105$47.68−$242.32
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2950.055$37.32−$162.68
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? · No0.8480.924$32.69+$2.69
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1310.050$20.66−$33.34
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? · No0.8000.880$8.80+$0.80
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? · Yes0.0120.003$5.00−$19.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-19 09:07Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.8740999884$15.4k
10-19 09:06UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?SELL0.89$396.44
10-19 09:06Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?SELL0.001846504$4.62
10-19 09:05China x Philippines military clash before 2027?SELL0.7573433611$556.87
10-19 09:04Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?SELL0.9161762941$458.05
10-19 09:04Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?SELL0.9023316334$1.0k
10-19 09:03Kash Patel out by December 31?SELL0.7898421486$786.08
10-19 09:02Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.737279992$3.3k
10-19 09:02Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.84$5.8k
10-19 09:01Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?SELL0.89$1.1k
10-19 09:01Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?SELL0.989$2.2k
10-19 09:00Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.9325976786$2.6k
10-19 08:59Iran leadership change by October 31?SELL0.9701986525$2.8k
10-19 08:58Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL0.9754124725$3.5k
09-11 13:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.18$58.71