nelbal8486
0x8c4465127b5278a5d7fd120b95b77e7fe292fcd4
- Realised P&L
- $31.7k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 141
- Open portfolio
- $101.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded141
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.5kat 0.135Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$11.3kat 0.537Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$5.3kat 0.903Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
- +$3.2kat 0.360Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state?
- +$3.0kat 0.921Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 15:39 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9285781665 | $4.5k |
| 09-12 13:20 | Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.978 | $97.82 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.9783136049 | $63.64 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.979223773 | $107.34 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.9796475211 | $149.58 |
| 09-12 13:17 | Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.9886987961 | $133.86 |
| 09-12 13:14 | Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8424079691 | $2.0k |
| 09-11 11:00 | Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.72 | $117.72 |
| 09-11 11:00 | Will Hamza Chowdhury win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.998180198 | $504.08 |
| 09-08 12:52 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.2k |
| 09-08 12:52 | Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.15 | $80.87 |
| 09-08 12:50 | Another Clacton by-election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.23 |
| 09-05 09:17 | Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.2583318389 | $123.89 |
| 09-03 15:08 | Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.4633818059 | $82.21 |
| 09-02 12:48 | Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.2430189638 | $90.86 |