nelbal8486
0x8c4465127b5278a5d7fd120b95b77e7fe292fcd4
- Realised P&L
- $23.4k
- Volume
- $1.54M
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $101.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.5kat 0.135Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$11.3kat 0.537Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$5.3kat 0.903Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
- +$3.2kat 0.360Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state?
- +$3.0kat 0.921Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:08 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.71 | $35.50 |
| 10-15 10:08 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.54 | $643.28 |
| 10-15 10:06 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $96.02 |
| 10-06 16:15 | Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 10-06 16:10 | Plague pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9658706542 | $552.58 |
| 10-05 11:21 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.77 | $610.03 |
| 09-26 07:47 | UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $72.00 |
| 09-24 14:29 | Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.7576397332 | $128.37 |
| 09-24 14:28 | Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $78.28 |
| 09-24 14:02 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.2342272698 | $109.36 |
| 09-13 15:39 | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9285781665 | $4.5k |
| 09-12 13:20 | Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.978 | $97.82 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.9783136049 | $63.64 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.979223773 | $107.34 |
| 09-12 13:19 | Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.9796475211 | $149.58 |