Overlord36912
0x8bd82332873dfc8a80bd5c14b5051b8500f212df
- Realised P&L
- $-6.6k
- Volume
- $294.9k
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.811Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$885.71at 0.538Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$822.81at 0.695Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
- +$793.58at 0.759Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$530.02at 0.786Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:47 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.600080165 | $718.61 |
| 09-16 22:47 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.6843046179 | $25.34 |
| 09-08 19:36 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.81 | $1000.00 |
| 08-25 23:12 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.8489999988 | $98.63 |
| 08-25 22:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9189999999 | $900.00 |
| 08-22 03:32 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999987 | $490.00 |
| 08-21 03:49 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 23:48 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9067273842 | $1.5k |
| 08-20 18:49 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7081068644 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 17:50 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7707094754 | $700.00 |
| 08-19 22:56 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 19? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 22:54 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 19? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 22:54 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 19? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 03:02 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.8340009204 | $951.41 |
| 08-18 01:46 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |