NotMasterFan
0x8bc84fc35f5555d5396f433937abb7ed6e4597dc
- Realised P&L
- $10.5k
- Volume
- $4.80M
- Markets traded
- 473
- Open portfolio
- $10.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded473
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.955 | $3.4k | −$15.88 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? · No | 0.989 | 0.991 | $2.4k | +$3.59 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.973 | 0.972 | $1.9k | −$2.03 |
| Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.948 | $945.34 | −$1.65 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.976 | 0.977 | $781.22 | +$0.10 |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? · No | 0.960 | 0.964 | $524.17 | +$1.73 |
| Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.845 | $325.80 | −$5.78 |
| Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026? · No | 0.969 | 0.953 | $55.97 | −$0.97 |
| Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by December 31? · Yes | 0.867 | 0.830 | $49.79 | −$2.20 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.982 | 0.982 | $43.13 | +$0.00 |
| Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.825 | $4.13 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.6kat 0.002Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
- +$4.0kat 0.664S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29?
- +$3.4kat 0.002Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
- +$2.9kat 0.297Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
- +$1.5kat 0.002Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 01:44 | Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.946 | $17.59 |
| 10-06 01:03 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 10-06 01:03 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-06 01:02 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-06 00:42 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 10-06 00:38 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 10-06 00:38 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9244642857 | $41.42 |
| 10-06 00:38 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.9132236205 | $28.30 |
| 10-05 01:30 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | BUY | 0.967 | $19.34 |
| 10-04 19:12 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | BUY | 0.964 | $28.92 |
| 10-04 01:40 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $465.73 |
| 10-03 14:04 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | SELL | 0.76 | $30.40 |
| 10-03 13:53 | Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $19.40 |
| 10-03 13:52 | Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $43.20 |
| 10-03 11:13 | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $450.00 |