if-then-else
0x8b589851f9057c90ff8a34dc2aaf3d8a25caaeb6
- Realised P&L
- $-19.29
- Volume
- $703.42
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $2.90
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.015 | $1.55 | −$15.45 |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.027 | $1.35 | −$9.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.16at 0.075Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
- +$5.28at 0.115Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$2.39at 0.520No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
- +$0.16at 0.135Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
- +$-7.36at 0.180Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-26 14:47 | Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.95 |
| 03-26 14:43 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $7.89 |
| 12-11 18:58 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1799999839 | $7.36 |
| 12-11 18:51 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? | SELL | 0.139 | $5.16 |
| 12-11 18:51 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | SELL | 0.2364711295 | $10.28 |
| 12-05 22:29 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? | BUY | 0.1345961886 | $5.00 |
| 12-05 22:29 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.1149999819 | $5.00 |
| 11-25 16:06 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | SELL | 0.243 | $29.16 |
| 11-20 14:00 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $12.76 |
| 11-17 12:10 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.519999994 | $10.37 |
| 11-12 17:21 | Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.2099999902 | $15.00 |
| 11-12 14:28 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.075 | $9.00 |