PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

if-then-else

0x8b589851f9057c90ff8a34dc2aaf3d8a25caaeb6

Realised P&L
$-19.29
Volume
$703.42
Markets traded
8
Open portfolio
$2.90

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded8
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration72.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? · Yes0.1700.015$1.55$15.45
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? · Yes0.2100.027$1.35$9.15

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-26 14:47Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?BUY0.21$3.95
03-26 14:43Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?BUY0.17$7.89
12-11 18:58Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?BUY0.1799999839$7.36
12-11 18:51Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?SELL0.139$5.16
12-11 18:51Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?SELL0.2364711295$10.28
12-05 22:29Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?BUY0.1345961886$5.00
12-05 22:29Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?BUY0.1149999819$5.00
11-25 16:06Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?SELL0.243$29.16
11-20 14:00No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?SELL0.64$12.76
11-17 12:10No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?BUY0.519999994$10.37
11-12 17:21Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?BUY0.2099999902$15.00
11-12 14:28Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?BUY0.075$9.00