PolyBot

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Traders

mjw0410

0x8b45d9fe3311cd9f791cd09cb7bf032a1eba077e

Realised P&L
$-1.5k
Volume
$325.4k
Markets traded
1,084
Open portfolio
$327.52

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,084
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration14.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? · Yes0.4900.475$48.47−$1.53
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.1370.117$42.73−$7.27
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.5600.393$39.25−$16.75
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0810.099$36.62+$6.62
Will Chovy win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? · Yes0.1600.150$30.00−$2.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.2300.275$26.30+$4.30
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) · Portugal0.2600.255$25.33−$0.50
Will Zeka win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? · Yes0.0990.091$14.69−$1.31
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0520.061$14.12+$2.12
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0690.042$11.97−$8.03
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0070.015$10.36+$5.36
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? · Yes0.6800.695$10.22+$0.22
Will Zeus win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? · Yes0.0860.045$8.36−$7.64
Manchester City punishment announced by December 18? · Yes0.5600.330$5.89−$4.11
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? · Yes0.0240.017$2.83−$1.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 02:59Spread: Portugal (-1.5)BUY0.2599999996$25.83
10-01 02:59Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?BUY0.489999992$25.00
10-01 02:57Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETSELL0.09$4.33
10-01 02:56Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETBUY0.5199999908$25.00
10-01 02:55Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.0806883278$30.00
10-01 02:55Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.11667719$20.00
10-01 02:48Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.2299999998$22.00
10-01 02:48Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.007$5.00
10-01 01:12Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?BUY0.489999992$25.00
10-01 01:11Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?BUY0.6799999946$10.00
09-30 18:22Paris FC vs. Arsenal WFC: Arsenal WFC O/U 2.5BUY0.6799999946$10.00
09-28 18:58Belgium vs. France: France O/U 1.5BUY0.5$20.00
09-28 18:08Counter-Strike: NIP vs GamerLegion (BO5) - 1win Private Club #1 PlayoffsBUY0.7499999906$20.00
09-28 18:04Manchester City punishment announced by December 18?BUY0.5599999955$10.00
09-28 18:02Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?BUY0.459999988$10.00