0x8B223CA43Cc60f0F78E796e88887ECA74a8AC81E-1775727721372
0x8b223ca43cc60f0f78e796e88887eca74a8ac81e
- Realised P&L
- $-15.24
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $2.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.004 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.045 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.004 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.29at 0.612Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$-0.09at 0.050Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.42at 0.006Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
- +$-0.73at 0.006Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
- +$-1.00at 0.005Will "Michael" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 08:52 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 08:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 08:31 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.67 |
| 09-02 08:30 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.34 |
| 09-02 08:30 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $0.17 |
| 07-07 00:38 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 00:37 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 13:44 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.006999993 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 13:44 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 13:44 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0058723354 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 13:44 | Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 05:30 | Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0519999513 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 05:30 | Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 05:28 | Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 05:28 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |