as141sa
0x8afa7d5e0f289b85b2bc89dd5ef6be39fc5b1265
- Realised P&L
- $-356.64
- Volume
- $32.9k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $193.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.916 | 0.973 | $52.52 | +$3.05 |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.990 | $33.66 | +$0.85 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.980 | $29.39 | +$1.49 |
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? · No | 0.920 | 0.940 | $25.38 | +$0.54 |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.042 | $24.90 | −$119.10 |
| Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.935 | $14.03 | +$0.68 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · No | 0.813 | 0.903 | $11.66 | +$1.16 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No | 0.413 | 0.034 | $1.29 | −$14.66 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.185 | 0.029 | $0.85 | −$4.70 |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.250Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
- +$18.29at 0.496Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$15.12at 0.180Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$14.94at 0.870Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
- +$10.00at 0.750Yoon reinstated as President before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-07 08:59 | Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | BUY | 0.92 | $24.84 |
| 06-07 08:59 | JD Vance out as VP by June 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $24.43 |
| 06-07 08:59 | JD Vance out as VP by June 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $20.85 |
| 06-07 08:59 | Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | BUY | 0.99 | $26.53 |
| 05-30 09:07 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.997 | $29.10 |
| 05-30 09:06 | Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? | BUY | 0.985 | $26.59 |
| 05-30 09:04 | Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $28.28 |
| 05-05 04:18 | Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | BUY | 0.53 | $9.24 |
| 05-05 04:17 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.94 |
| 05-05 04:15 | Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $13.35 |
| 05-05 04:14 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.413 | $15.96 |
| 04-29 18:45 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |
| 03-08 00:05 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $77.76 |
| 03-08 00:04 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | BUY | 0.041 | $1.09 |
| 03-08 00:02 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.916 | $49.46 |