dilatingradio
0x8ab17e058adf3ba7d9dc517076cd94892fe86293
- Realised P&L
- $-491.21
- Volume
- $19.4k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $171.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.047 | $40.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.585 | $30.79 | +$0.79 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.195 | $24.38 | +$4.38 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.962 | $23.17 | +$3.17 |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.574 | 0.360 | $18.84 | −$11.16 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.529 | 0.075 | $14.16 | −$85.83 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.098 | $10.60 | +$0.60 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.755 | 0.067 | $8.81 | −$91.19 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$177.97at 0.525Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
- +$168.26at 0.686Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
- +$152.52at 0.547Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
- +$143.53at 0.511Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
- +$134.02at 0.617Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:48 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0490361455 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 14:45 | Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.04456959 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 19:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET | BUY | 0.6999999944 | $25.00 |
| 09-08 18:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5341225129 | $25.00 |
| 09-08 18:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | BUY | 0.829999998 | $25.00 |
| 09-08 18:50 | Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | BUY | 0.0919999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 18:49 | Will Andy Burnham say "Social Media" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.92 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 18:49 | Will Andy Burnham say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.2699999966 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 18:45 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999994 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 18:43 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 18:42 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.5740432565 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 18:42 | LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.539999986 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 11:07 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5199999938 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 11:07 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999981 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 11:07 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.2799999916 | $20.00 |