whysoslow
0x8a98712fb0cbc04c38193492ae8cd0f41afd2619
- Realised P&L
- $-791.20
- Volume
- $39.2k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- ClearOpen concentration32.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.065 | $918.27 | −$404.35 |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.065 | $725.99 | −$274.00 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.085 | $708.33 | −$85.08 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.085 | $472.22 | −$27.77 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 11:31 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.70 |
| 07-23 11:28 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0875 | $175.00 |
| 07-21 08:52 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999998 | $500.00 |
| 07-21 08:33 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.09868578 | $493.43 |
| 07-21 08:30 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0999916667 | $599.95 |
| 07-21 07:51 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $45.00 |
| 07-21 07:05 | NATO article 5 before 2027? | BUY | 0.0895329869 | $1000.00 |
| 07-21 06:59 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999997 | $300.00 |
| 07-21 05:46 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0893298473 | $500.00 |