0x8A8cbDbaC429DD5d0f3fB15109e1d5a9cE8428dB-1772485751316
0x8a8cbdbac429dd5d0f3fb15109e1d5a9ce8428db
- Realised P&L
- $-59.33
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $985.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.380 | $763.38 | −$231.65 |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.701 | 0.875 | $221.93 | +$44.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.78at 0.581Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$128.14at 0.685Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?
- +$89.26at 0.686Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$80.51at 0.468Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
- +$51.09at 0.547Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 15:32 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999975 | $65.00 |
| 09-05 07:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5099999967 | $55.00 |
| 09-03 20:41 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0151417205 | $5.27 |
| 09-02 17:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.569999996 | $55.00 |
| 09-01 17:30 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.4114942529 | $35.80 |
| 08-31 16:41 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2586344077 | $50.00 |
| 08-31 04:28 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | SELL | 0.8427093935 | $183.82 |
| 08-27 16:28 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4470316602 | $75.30 |
| 08-21 16:20 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999982 | $50.00 |
| 08-19 20:01 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | BUY | 0.4937150079 | $50.00 |
| 08-18 19:37 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15? | BUY | 0.427860692 | $50.00 |
| 08-06 18:59 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? | BUY | 0.6823295501 | $220.69 |
| 08-06 18:53 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? | BUY | 0.6537017062 | $54.66 |
| 08-06 04:41 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7013260772 | $177.88 |
| 07-19 16:26 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? | BUY | 0.8960074222 | $110.00 |