ScottRoth2230
0x89961f6c262824bf40fb10287a9d0789b7d99c76
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $314.7k
- Markets traded
- 416
- Open portfolio
- $52.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded416
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.060 | $33.06 | −$71.63 |
| Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.960 | $17.27 | +$3.95 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.165 | $0.82 | −$1.32 |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.153 | $0.46 | −$0.37 |
| Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.260 | $0.26 | −$0.11 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.043 | $0.21 | −$1.54 |
| Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.290Will Ethena dip to $0.08 by December 31, 2026?
- +$551.10at 0.120Will Zendaya wear a wedding or engagement ring at the Met Gala?
- +$457.08at 0.220Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
- +$343.17at 0.390Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?
- +$336.80at 0.310Will Trump post "Democrat Shutdown" on Truth Social this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 08:22 | Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.788 | $740.72 |
| 04-21 10:38 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $39.27 |
| 04-21 10:31 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.6 | $253.20 |
| 04-21 10:28 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.6 | $47.40 |
| 04-21 08:18 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.69 | $49.96 |
| 04-21 08:16 | Will Hong Kong have less than 130mm of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.68 | $39.44 |
| 04-21 04:55 | Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $17.38 |
| 04-21 03:06 | Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $261.80 |
| 04-13 10:16 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.79 | $479.53 |
| 04-13 09:22 | Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw? | SELL | 0.08 | $28.56 |
| 04-13 09:21 | Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw? | SELL | 0.08 | $47.36 |
| 04-13 05:28 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $8.80 |
| 04-13 04:45 | Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | SELL | 0.17 | $110.67 |
| 04-13 04:39 | Will Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $3.48 |
| 04-13 02:50 | Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $42.84 |