almost-never
0x88b59d79b6e1659c95a0043028e5bb7a26e6205c
- Realised P&L
- $90.8k
- Volume
- $11.75M
- Markets traded
- 356
- Open portfolio
- $281.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded356
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.4kat 0.627Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$44.1kat 0.430Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?
- +$40.6kat 0.552Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
- +$37.2kat 0.466Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?
- +$37.0kat 0.862Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 22:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9696061479 | $151.40 |
| 10-04 22:24 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 48% and 51% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9747341348 | $1.1k |
| 10-04 21:54 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.95 | $6.3k |
| 10-04 21:47 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.945 | $274.05 |
| 10-04 21:46 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.0k |
| 10-04 21:38 | Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 10-04 21:37 | Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $178.34 |
| 10-04 21:33 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-04 21:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.9 | $108.00 |
| 10-04 21:27 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.4k |
| 10-04 21:20 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.87 | $791.11 |
| 10-04 21:12 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.9k |
| 10-04 21:07 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.7k |
| 10-04 21:03 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $927.78 |
| 10-04 21:01 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | BUY | 0.8993781925 | $12.7k |