mrtn08
0x8859b37cba475184ca073febac74c15c89bf22c0
- Realised P&L
- $808.88
- Volume
- $90.8k
- Markets traded
- 322
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded322
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.795 | $318.00 | +$6.00 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.117 | $211.50 | −$6.40 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.911 | $182.20 | +$18.10 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No | 0.655 | 0.775 | $155.00 | +$24.00 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31? · No | 0.901 | 0.955 | $95.45 | +$5.35 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? · No | 0.748 | 0.955 | $95.45 | +$20.65 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 · Over | 0.580 | 0.700 | $7.02 | +$1.20 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.063 | $4.31 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$363.13at 0.650Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?
- +$340.93at 0.675DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
- +$280.43at 0.687Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$208.64at 0.381Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?
- +$176.48at 0.530Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 19:03 | Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | SELL | 0.067 | $4.58 |
| 07-19 22:44 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.96 | $38.40 |
| 07-19 22:18 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 07-19 22:16 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-19 22:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.96 |
| 07-19 21:56 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.53 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 07-19 21:12 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.00 |
| 07-19 21:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.25 |
| 07-18 20:58 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $399.20 |
| 07-17 03:57 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.416 | $18.51 |
| 07-17 03:16 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $34.00 |
| 07-16 23:02 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.379 | $17.05 |
| 07-16 22:26 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $28.88 |