mrtn08
0x8859b37cba475184ca073febac74c15c89bf22c0
- Realised P&L
- $775.37
- Volume
- $95.1k
- Markets traded
- 343
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded343
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.835 | $501.00 | +$21.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.420 | 1.000 | $199.90 | +$115.90 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.941 | $188.10 | +$24.00 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No | 0.655 | 0.860 | $172.00 | +$41.00 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.080 | $143.10 | −$74.80 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.891 | $106.98 | −$2.77 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.935 | $93.50 | +$2.50 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.860 | 0.895 | $89.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.770 | $76.99 | +$4.00 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.765 | $76.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.061 | $4.20 | −$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$363.13at 0.650Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?
- +$340.93at 0.675DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
- +$280.43at 0.687Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
- +$208.64at 0.381Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?
- +$176.48at 0.530Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 17:27 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by August 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $62.34 |
| 08-31 15:23 | Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by August 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $98.00 |
| 08-31 04:49 | Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by August 31? | BUY | 0.972 | $97.20 |
| 08-19 03:18 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.0103 | $1.03 |
| 07-20 19:03 | Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | SELL | 0.067 | $4.58 |
| 07-19 22:44 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.96 | $38.40 |
| 07-19 22:18 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 07-19 22:16 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 07-19 22:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Draw at halftime? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.96 |
| 07-19 21:56 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.53 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 07-19 21:13 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.95 | $47.50 |
| 07-19 21:12 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.96 | $48.00 |
| 07-19 21:11 | Spain vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.25 |
| 07-18 20:58 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $399.20 |