Mr.Bonsai
0x881e251a2c8ca706ffd5deb9e609a7b64e3197e4
- Realised P&L
- $-86.83
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 91
- Open portfolio
- $27.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded91
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.95at 0.430Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$6.36at 0.440Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$4.00at 0.200Will Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?
- +$3.38at 0.470Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?
- +$3.31at 0.230US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 13:31 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0259999869 | $1.98 |
| 07-04 13:30 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.013 | $2.12 |
| 07-04 13:24 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.06499998 | $3.00 |
| 07-04 13:24 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.06 | $3.05 |
| 05-28 20:12 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1019999917 | $9.96 |
| 05-21 02:34 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? | BUY | 0.7599999483 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 02:30 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $4.62 |
| 05-21 02:29 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999789 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 02:28 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 02:28 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | BUY | 0.0368525898 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 02:28 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 02:27 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.0969999157 | $1.00 |
| 05-21 02:24 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0230000001 | $5.00 |
| 05-21 02:24 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.034 | $20.57 |
| 05-21 02:22 | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY | 0.8399999244 | $8.00 |