PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Mr.Bonsai

0x881e251a2c8ca706ffd5deb9e609a7b64e3197e4

Realised P&L
$-86.83
Volume
$6.4k
Markets traded
91
Open portfolio
$27.39

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded91
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration30.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0240.020$8.26$1.74
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0250.020$8.00$2.00
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1300.046$1.79$3.21
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? · Yes0.3090.105$1.70$3.30
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes0.1300.018$1.35$8.65
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1500.065$1.30$1.70
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1330.041$1.23$2.77
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes0.3200.075$1.17$3.83
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027? · Yes0.2000.079$0.79$1.22
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0100.001$0.66$12.61
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.130$0.37$0.63
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.2000.065$0.32$0.68
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · Yes0.2200.065$0.30$0.70
NATO dissolves before 2027? · Yes0.0900.015$0.16$0.84

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-04 13:31Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0259999869$1.98
07-04 13:30Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.013$2.12
07-04 13:24Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.06499998$3.00
07-04 13:24Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.06$3.05
05-28 20:12Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.1019999917$9.96
05-21 02:34Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?BUY0.7599999483$10.00
05-21 02:30Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?SELL0.12$4.62
05-21 02:29Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?BUY0.1299999789$5.00
05-21 02:28Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?BUY0.2299998275$1.00
05-21 02:28Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?BUY0.0368525898$1.00
05-21 02:28Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?BUY0.2299998275$1.00
05-21 02:27Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?BUY0.0969999157$1.00
05-21 02:24Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.0230000001$5.00
05-21 02:24Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.034$20.57
05-21 02:22Iran closes its airspace by May 24?BUY0.8399999244$8.00