smith-dom
0x86538f8f4a2e614f897dbe6460c75c80f8470d6b
- Realised P&L
- $336.61
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 178
- Open portfolio
- $79.73
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded178
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.97at 0.413Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?
- +$41.82at 0.331Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?
- +$36.23at 0.210Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$34.57at 0.470Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026?
- +$31.05at 0.083Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 13:47 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1929004643 | $10.00 |
| 09-21 12:57 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999992 | $7.00 |
| 09-21 10:25 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 09-21 08:20 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.49 |
| 09-21 07:27 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.83 |
| 09-19 06:06 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-19 02:56 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.698999999 | $30.00 |
| 09-18 15:54 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 09-17 10:07 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1? | BUY | 0.278 | $5.56 |
| 09-17 08:40 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999954 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 06:21 | Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 02:11 | US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 11:49 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0382803253 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 13:37 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999951 | $30.00 |
| 09-08 09:01 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.8902629017 | $18.29 |