0x8635a467459281d2d5c5a3e2d8a876f9031b620b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $23.2k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $520.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.900 | $197.80 | −$2.20 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.520 | $91.69 | +$1.69 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.646 | 0.790 | $75.81 | +$13.81 |
| Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.542 | 0.685 | $63.15 | +$13.15 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by September 15, 2026? · No | 0.981 | 0.980 | $59.98 | −$0.06 |
| Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.185 | $18.50 | −$1.50 |
| Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.400 | $11.59 | −$8.41 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.011 | $2.47 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$87.70at 0.910Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3?
- +$60.48at 0.760Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8?
- +$49.32at 0.904Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?
- +$48.35at 0.883Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11?
- +$45.82at 0.959Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 02:35 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $12.00 |
| 09-14 18:28 | Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9805477781 | $60.04 |
| 09-14 18:26 | Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999952 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 18:23 | Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.0133715803 | $3.00 |
| 09-14 18:23 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $200.00 |
| 09-14 18:10 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6175984684 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 18:08 | Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5104228293 | $90.00 |
| 09-14 18:06 | Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.5423389188 | $50.00 |
| 09-14 18:05 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 06-22 02:34 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.9375701628 | $396.81 |
| 06-20 15:53 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.9308245492 | $241.07 |
| 06-19 13:51 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.3319498378 | $28.65 |
| 06-19 11:16 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | SELL | 0.2386209094 | $82.40 |
| 06-19 10:55 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5415156463 | $449.03 |
| 06-18 08:51 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.8712672899 | $601.71 |