Knowyourball
0x8594c920aebb0fdbd76ec860a558017a69037eed
- Realised P&L
- $-172.24
- Volume
- $539.7k
- Markets traded
- 2,503
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,503
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$535.27at 0.692Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$373.04at 0.831Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
- +$327.26at 0.753Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
- +$316.28at 0.857Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$262.82at 0.940Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:23 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 16:55 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 09-16 14:56 | FC Lugano vs. FC St. Gallen 1879: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.6799999937 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 14:56 | Will FC Lugano win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 14:54 | Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.6099999961 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 14:54 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 02:26 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $266.00 |
| 09-15 20:56 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.65 | $94.20 |
| 09-14 03:51 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 20:31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.8316831682 | $214.60 |
| 09-13 19:18 | Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $200.00 |
| 09-13 16:04 | Will Legia Warszawa win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.4599999951 | $15.00 |
| 09-13 15:54 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.45 | $32.14 |
| 09-13 15:33 | Will SK Brann win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 14:00 | Will Randers FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.459999988 | $10.00 |