Knowyourball
0x8594c920aebb0fdbd76ec860a558017a69037eed
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $547.2k
- Markets traded
- 2,556
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,556
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$535.27at 0.692Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
- +$373.04at 0.831Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
- +$327.26at 0.753Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
- +$316.29at 0.857Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$262.82at 0.940Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 17:42 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999978 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 12:44 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $50.00 |
| 10-28 06:19 | Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999924 | $10.00 |
| 10-28 04:17 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.365 | $6.35 |
| 10-27 04:29 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5749999784 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 17:25 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $15.00 |
| 10-26 17:05 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6569999942 | $70.00 |
| 10-26 17:04 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6559999963 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 17:03 | Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.3648646865 | $11.06 |
| 10-26 16:25 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.622026921 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 16:20 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6019999829 | $13.00 |
| 10-26 16:20 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.90 |
| 10-26 16:17 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3363273418 | $5.00 |
| 10-26 16:17 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.608 | $9.76 |
| 10-26 15:35 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6229999754 | $10.00 |