Niv44
0x85287331e1632d77b854ef3b0c20bff86c505a44
- Realised P&L
- $-19.22
- Volume
- $4.8k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $30.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.96at 0.409Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
- +$20.80at 0.497Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
- +$17.16at 0.577Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
- +$10.78at 0.587Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
- +$8.88at 0.742Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 15:37 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.7635475508 | $55.96 |
| 08-09 19:05 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.6109999946 | $25.00 |
| 08-08 20:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $5.15 |
| 08-08 20:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 08-08 20:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 15:21 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 15:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 15:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.119999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 15:19 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.179999928 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 15:16 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.1769999571 | $3.00 |
| 08-07 15:11 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4319999537 | $5.00 |
| 08-06 21:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.1372503781 | $3.00 |
| 08-06 21:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.0090000001 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 21:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $6.11 |
| 08-06 21:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | BUY | 0.8099999741 | $5.00 |