0x84fE37817a9797761d141977d0F12043F75B1222-1771632974077
0x84fe37817a9797761d141977d0f12043f75b1222
- Realised P&L
- $245.28
- Volume
- $16.2k
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$250.12at 0.167Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$43.52at 0.242England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$43.17at 0.122Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
- +$31.93at 0.921Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
- +$28.21at 0.780Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 20:02 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:58 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio? | BUY | 0.007 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:56 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:55 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:54 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:41 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:39 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.004 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:39 | Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:39 | Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:37 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:34 | Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.1069999999 | $10.00 |
| 10-31 19:33 | Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Michigan and Texas? | BUY | 0.005 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 14:47 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $50.00 |
| 10-30 14:46 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999993 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 14:45 | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | BUY | 0.9 | $25.00 |