PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

stu

0x84b0405daf1a56f7cda5720d1937fc03b22e5bc8

Realised P&L
$2.3k
Volume
$766.1k
Markets traded
147
Open portfolio
$8.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded147
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.8920.955$1.6k+$101.75
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0140.014$1.2k+$29.89
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9280.960$834.90+$27.43
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1860.154$508.20−$106.58
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No0.6800.465$492.89−$228.07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.9220.945$415.78+$10.21
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.9560.979$380.74+$8.65
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0240.035$351.45+$115.25
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.6700.745$298.00+$30.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · No0.9190.930$297.60+$3.44
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No0.9720.978$293.24+$1.63
Kash Patel out by December 31? · No0.7280.810$218.69+$22.20
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9530.968$212.96+$3.34
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · No0.9240.945$175.02+$3.75
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5440.725$159.50+$39.70

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 12:55Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.52$104.00
11-01 12:55Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?BUY0.049$9.80
11-01 04:48Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2028 elections?BUY0.62$61.38
10-29 02:439.0 or above earthquake before 2027?SELL0.96$5.02
10-26 12:56Kash Patel out by December 31?BUY0.8$2.95
10-25 02:24Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.021$42.61
10-23 23:18Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?BUY0.85$42.50
10-23 22:47Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?SELL0.6223001769$80.89
10-22 00:01Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?BUY0.88$17.60
10-18 11:39Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.852$255.60
10-18 11:37Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.852$42.60
10-17 21:182026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBUY0.92$92.00
10-17 12:39Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.949$47.45
10-17 02:442026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.63$126.00
10-09 16:27Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?BUY0.93$18.60