stu
0x84b0405daf1a56f7cda5720d1937fc03b22e5bc8
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $648.1k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $7.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$843.16at 0.027Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$542.65at 0.677Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
- +$363.90at 0.761Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
- +$303.17at 0.862Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$264.77at 0.436Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 12:33 | Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.25 |
| 07-30 04:39 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SELL | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 07-27 13:19 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.024 | $24.00 |
| 07-27 08:38 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.97 | $54.97 |
| 07-27 00:07 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.956 | $478.00 |
| 07-25 23:55 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.913 | $4.57 |
| 07-25 05:46 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.912 | $2.7k |
| 07-24 17:00 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.912 | $456.00 |
| 07-22 04:52 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.018 | $13.29 |
| 07-19 03:21 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 07-09 14:21 | Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.021095 | $4.22 |
| 07-06 22:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $44.10 |
| 07-04 02:15 | Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | SELL | 0.7007 | $70.07 |
| 06-29 22:03 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.865 | $30.27 |
| 06-28 23:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.50 |