stu
0x84b0405daf1a56f7cda5720d1937fc03b22e5bc8
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $766.1k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $8.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$843.16at 0.027Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$542.65at 0.677Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
- +$363.90at 0.761Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
- +$303.17at 0.862Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$262.29at 0.436Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 12:55 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $104.00 |
| 11-01 12:55 | Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | BUY | 0.049 | $9.80 |
| 11-01 04:48 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2028 elections? | BUY | 0.62 | $61.38 |
| 10-29 02:43 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | SELL | 0.96 | $5.02 |
| 10-26 12:56 | Kash Patel out by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.95 |
| 10-25 02:24 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.021 | $42.61 |
| 10-23 23:18 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $42.50 |
| 10-23 22:47 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.6223001769 | $80.89 |
| 10-22 00:01 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 10-18 11:39 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.852 | $255.60 |
| 10-18 11:37 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.852 | $42.60 |
| 10-17 21:18 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 10-17 12:39 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.949 | $47.45 |
| 10-17 02:44 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 10-09 16:27 | Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |