stu
0x84b0405daf1a56f7cda5720d1937fc03b22e5bc8
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $725.6k
- Markets traded
- 129
- Open portfolio
- $8.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded129
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$843.16at 0.027Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$542.65at 0.677Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
- +$363.90at 0.761Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
- +$303.17at 0.862Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$262.29at 0.436Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 07:08 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.121 | $52.03 |
| 09-13 06:03 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.121 | $68.97 |
| 09-12 01:06 | Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | SELL | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 09-10 04:03 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $10.40 |
| 09-08 10:38 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 09-05 10:33 | Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.011 | $43.69 |
| 09-05 00:55 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $22.40 |
| 09-03 04:55 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $495.50 |
| 09-01 15:35 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.025 | $97.50 |
| 08-31 03:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $194.60 |
| 08-31 03:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.975 | $23.18 |
| 08-27 07:50 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $491.00 |
| 08-17 23:17 | Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.38 | $14.44 |
| 08-17 23:17 | Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 08-13 23:24 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.036 | $15.76 |