0x84a5194f575d056aa87d53358f84ddf2346c36db
0x84a5194f575d056aa87d53358f84ddf2346c36db
- Realised P&L
- $8.04
- Volume
- $414.26
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $8.73
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.660 | $1.71 | −$0.29 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? · No | 0.370 | 0.445 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.475 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.165 | $1.03 | −$0.97 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? · No | 0.670 | 0.655 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.180 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.115 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.200 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
- +$4.25at 0.320US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:27 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $690 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 20:13 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 12:03 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:34 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 16:57 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 16:50 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 05:43 | Will Trump say "Board of Trade" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 21:43 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 13:35 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 05:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 21:05 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 13:05 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 05:04 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 20:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |