PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

DonationsReceiver

0x847667d84fc4d81db36689c4f4c5845c8d125418

Realised P&L
$47.2k
Volume
$8.63M
Markets traded
405
Open portfolio
$83.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded405
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.817$40.8k+$15.8k
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8570.945$10.0k+$935.41
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.183$9.2k−$15.8k
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9400.955$8.7k+$136.02
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9630.971$5.4k+$44.45
Israeli Knesset election annulled? · No0.9580.966$2.3k+$18.80
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7670.745$2.2k−$65.00
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.945$2.0k+$95.57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4820.413$1.5k−$252.14
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1240.125$694.38+$5.55
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0910.122$681.10+$175.08
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? · Yes0.1890.021$284.91−$2.2k
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0160.020$36.41+$7.28
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0020.001$25.46−$58.52
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8800.978$9.78+$0.97

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 23:32Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by October 31?SELL0.0343636364$1.89
10-31 18:16Israeli Knesset election annulled?BUY0.9599771109$1.3k
10-30 22:56Israeli Knesset election annulled?BUY0.9552382783$954.28
10-28 13:50Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.47$213.57
10-28 13:10Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?SELL0.007$28.59
10-28 12:41Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.007982195$45.14
10-26 14:24Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.3019507503$301.65
10-26 02:02Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.998$20.0k
10-26 00:01Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.991$11.0k
10-25 23:25Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.0879089886$1.1k
10-23 19:46NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?BUY0.34$966.92
10-23 19:03NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?BUY0.39$2.2k
10-23 17:25NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?BUY0.6087951395$3.4k
10-23 17:24NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?BUY0.21$1.2k
10-23 17:23NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?BUY0.2046657298$415.06