flyfat88
0x844ef6cdd0a4d691b7a81429ee550f025aa64f41
- Realised P&L
- $25.0k
- Volume
- $1.36M
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $61.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.998 | $59.4k | +$21.3k |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.899 | 0.903 | $1.4k | +$6.50 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · No | 0.651 | 0.981 | $318.80 | +$107.35 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.7k |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.55 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$374.15 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.4kat 0.614Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$38.5kat 0.660Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$32.8kat 0.587Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$19.3kat 0.702Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$16.6kat 0.546No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 03:38 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.983 | $489.53 |
| 09-13 00:43 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.916 | $95.58 |
| 09-06 01:05 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.022 | $924.00 |
| 09-05 01:25 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $60.00 |
| 09-01 07:12 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | SELL | 0.047 | $22.61 |
| 09-01 07:03 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $24.80 |
| 08-27 12:19 | Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.062 | $316.20 |
| 08-27 09:42 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.071 | $32.80 |
| 08-27 07:26 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.0690434783 | $17.47 |
| 08-27 00:12 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.053950663 | $40.97 |
| 08-25 16:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.0281102396 | $309.31 |
| 08-25 05:31 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.04553004 | $45.53 |
| 08-25 02:46 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.0463946588 | $78.18 |
| 08-24 16:22 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.0515480226 | $18.25 |
| 08-23 18:24 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $27.60 |