Adnadid
0x842d4ea5d72b4dd3a0401fca1b4ac388edcd3ffc
- Realised P&L
- $9.89
- Volume
- $715.57
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $38.40
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? · No | 0.917 | 0.949 | $8.91 | +$0.30 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.778 | 0.945 | $8.44 | +$1.49 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.864 | 0.875 | $6.43 | +$0.08 |
| Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.875 | 0.885 | $5.87 | +$0.07 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? · No | 0.950 | 0.976 | $3.85 | +$0.10 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.245 | $1.57 | +$0.54 |
| Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.847 | $1.24 | +$0.07 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.535 | $1.12 | −$0.18 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.170 | 0.165 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 10, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? · No | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.70at 0.897Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
- +$3.01at 0.197Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
- +$1.67at 0.900Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
- +$1.36at 0.490Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
- +$1.25at 0.910US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 04:40 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 04:36 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.619999876 | $1.30 |
| 09-17 20:42 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.88 | $2.25 |
| 09-17 20:40 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999765 | $3.00 |
| 09-17 20:39 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? | SELL | 0.996 | $8.01 |
| 09-15 14:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 14:12 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.01 |
| 09-15 05:06 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.7799998674 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 05:05 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.10 |
| 09-14 09:11 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 09:08 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 09:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $2.99 |
| 09-12 01:16 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | BUY | 0.8299993756 | $1.09 |
| 09-12 01:15 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | SELL | 0.969 | $1.02 |
| 09-11 07:03 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.80 |