PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4CfB000767e3fd2170d9EA02E9CcB1D916b7442C-1763894946588

0x8347499d7fa276c912c33784dc8d455fbc18fee2

Realised P&L
$-158.37
Volume
$49.8k
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$414.39

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample2 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration99.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2740.036$411.29−$2.7k
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31? · Yes0.0510.032$3.11−$1.89
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0030.000$0.00−$6.86
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET · Up0.1720.000$0.00−$25.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET · Up0.1300.000$0.00−$5.00
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 1 Real Madrid CF? · Yes0.0280.000$0.00−$5.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$5.00
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Vance peak at Category 4? · Yes0.0210.000$0.00−$3.00
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0800.000$0.00−$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 17:28Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 1 Real Madrid CF?BUY0.0279999999$5.00
10-25 17:26Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETBUY0.1299999982$5.00
10-25 17:24Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?BUY0.0899999993$5.00
10-25 10:44Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?BUY0.08$5.00
10-25 10:42Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ETBUY0.4099999984$5.00
10-25 10:40Will Vance peak at Category 4?BUY0.0213946456$3.00
10-25 10:25Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?BUY0.0506454812$5.00
10-25 10:24Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?BUY0.08$3.00
09-21 06:41Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026SELL0.0578774936$141.93
09-20 19:56Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.2749668421$3.1k
09-20 19:15Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.2171456663$3.3k
09-18 20:40Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026BUY0.07$171.66
09-15 19:33Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.3299999999$642.94
09-14 17:28Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETBUY0.1720137449$25.00
09-14 17:25Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.2$1.5k