0x4CfB000767e3fd2170d9EA02E9CcB1D916b7442C-1763894946588
0x8347499d7fa276c912c33784dc8d455fbc18fee2
- Realised P&L
- $-158.37
- Volume
- $49.8k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $414.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.274 | 0.036 | $411.29 | −$2.7k |
| Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.032 | $3.11 | −$1.89 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.86 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET · Up | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET · Up | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 1 Real Madrid CF? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Vance peak at Category 4? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.99at 0.427Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$-41.46at 0.073Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 17:28 | Exact Score: FC Barcelona 5 - 1 Real Madrid CF? | BUY | 0.0279999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 17:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 17:24 | Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 10:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 10:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 10:40 | Will Vance peak at Category 4? | BUY | 0.0213946456 | $3.00 |
| 10-25 10:25 | Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31? | BUY | 0.0506454812 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 10:24 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.00 |
| 09-21 06:41 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | SELL | 0.0578774936 | $141.93 |
| 09-20 19:56 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2749668421 | $3.1k |
| 09-20 19:15 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2171456663 | $3.3k |
| 09-18 20:40 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.07 | $171.66 |
| 09-15 19:33 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999999 | $642.94 |
| 09-14 17:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET | BUY | 0.1720137449 | $25.00 |
| 09-14 17:25 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.5k |