tocimprotocim
0x82d9fcba8c2e1ec78beb15e7af4ed3dcbb16988b
- Realised P&L
- $-727.42
- Volume
- $134.6k
- Markets traded
- 126
- Open portfolio
- $345.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded126
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? · Yes | 0.133 | 0.185 | $208.70 | +$58.70 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.148 | $71.85 | −$99.65 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.850 | 0.915 | $45.76 | +$3.25 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.175 | $10.50 | −$3.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.090 | $9.00 | −$16.00 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.140 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$4.98 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30? · No | 0.348 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.53at 0.797Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$25.00at 0.423Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
- +$20.69at 0.546Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
- +$19.80at 0.117Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?
- +$14.70at 0.530Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 16:13 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.1399999989 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 14:06 | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | BUY | 0.1329668513 | $150.00 |
| 09-11 05:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 15:21 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? | BUY | 0.24 | $30.00 |
| 09-10 13:55 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? | BUY | 0.2615384612 | $60.00 |
| 09-09 19:18 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September? | SELL | 0.85 | $17.00 |
| 09-09 09:39 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.765661757 | $50.00 |
| 09-07 18:56 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.48 | $28.80 |
| 08-11 14:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.6 | $119.99 |
| 08-05 22:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.55 | $16.50 |
| 08-02 17:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.59 | $23.60 |
| 08-02 03:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.61 | $3.15 |
| 07-31 13:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.45 | $90.00 |
| 07-30 13:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.59 | $118.00 |
| 07-29 12:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.39 | $45.71 |