PatrickNash2660
0x82aa28e9deed78443973314d080059d3e48d2393
- Realised P&L
- $33.70
- Volume
- $537.8k
- Markets traded
- 629
- Open portfolio
- $208.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded629
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · Yes | 0.834 | 0.358 | $179.61 | −$238.23 |
| Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? · No | 0.650 | 0.968 | $15.49 | +$5.09 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.805 | $4.03 | +$1.18 |
| Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.580 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$1.68 |
| Rippling IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.065 | $3.51 | −$18.09 |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.700 | $1.40 | +$1.08 |
| Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.046 | $0.69 | −$0.96 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.061 | $0.06 | −$0.19 |
| Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.92 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$788.90at 0.510Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
- +$619.77at 0.159Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
- +$515.20at 0.300Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?
- +$514.08at 0.320Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 23?
- +$453.68at 0.410Will MrBeast say "Car" or "Supercar" during his next YouTube video?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 04:07 | Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $13.72 |
| 04-21 04:05 | Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $339.08 |
| 04-21 03:11 | Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $389.46 |
| 04-21 03:10 | Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $555.26 |
| 04-21 03:08 | Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? | SELL | 0.962 | $290.52 |
| 04-13 14:17 | Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $1.1k |
| 04-13 14:08 | Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $424.80 |
| 04-12 08:24 | Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05? | SELL | 0.61 | $343.43 |
| 04-11 23:37 | Will "Headshot" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | SELL | 0.03 | $21.51 |
| 04-11 23:33 | Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05? | SELL | 0.24 | $46.80 |
| 04-10 00:03 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $50.40 |
| 04-09 17:21 | Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $50.40 |
| 04-09 17:01 | Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05? | BUY | 0.82 | $621.56 |
| 04-09 12:57 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $866.86 |
| 04-09 09:11 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.411 | $470.18 |