0x81dd3ed43d3ed9b98e08bafd7094d66e91fad246
0x81dd3ed43d3ed9b98e08bafd7094d66e91fad246
- Realised P&L
- $-24.20
- Volume
- $111.21
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $3.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-21.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.348 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.280 | 0.265 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.675 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.425 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.20at 0.319Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?
- +$1.16at 0.620Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$0.34at 0.788Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.779Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$0.27at 0.787Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 17:52 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $192 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 15:46 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:42 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:36 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 13:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 05:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:24 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 21:28 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999126 | $1.25 |
| 07-23 12:53 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $4.14 |
| 07-23 00:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2469999914 | $15.00 |
| 07-22 12:50 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7459999684 | $4.95 |
| 07-22 00:49 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.76 |
| 07-21 12:48 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |