SenatorPalpatine
0x7ab8159e9547f291c4bc8afaf0f69b7a55a7eb56
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $77.4k
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $847.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$546.73at 0.606Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$507.57at 0.851US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$153.55at 0.381Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
- +$144.52at 0.686Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$122.93at 0.636Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 15:26 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 09-15 14:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $9.80 |
| 08-29 19:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | SELL | 0.988 | $12.83 |
| 08-29 19:49 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 08-27 16:20 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.20 |
| 08-27 16:18 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.043 | $4.30 |
| 08-27 16:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 08-24 22:27 | Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship? | BUY | 0.1098 | $27.45 |
| 08-24 12:22 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 08-24 12:21 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.45 | $5.85 |
| 08-23 15:49 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.50 |
| 08-23 15:48 | Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $20.10 |
| 08-21 15:50 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.04 |
| 08-20 21:17 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.068 | $6.80 |
| 08-20 21:16 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |