probthinker1
0x7a6b1fd432a1e4232a005eee184a55027d883363
- Realised P&L
- $22.00
- Volume
- $649.60
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $54.39
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration3.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.11at 0.080Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
- +$8.20at 0.379US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$6.27at 0.141Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.98at 0.447Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
- +$1.78at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 15:38 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.707 | $1.44 |
| 09-18 13:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4299998229 | $1.02 |
| 09-18 12:37 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.489999804 | $1.05 |
| 09-18 11:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4479999438 | $1.02 |
| 09-18 10:36 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.59 | $1.40 |
| 09-18 09:35 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.59 | $1.36 |
| 09-08 10:00 | Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | BUY | 0.4199999918 | $1.03 |
| 09-08 09:00 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4399998291 | $1.03 |
| 09-08 07:00 | Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | SELL | 0.58 | $1.42 |
| 09-08 04:59 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.56 | $1.37 |
| 09-04 03:55 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.4599997905 | $1.01 |
| 09-03 12:50 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4299997639 | $1.02 |
| 09-03 04:49 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4199999266 | $1.03 |
| 09-03 03:48 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.424 | $1.23 |
| 09-02 19:47 | Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998441 | $1.01 |