PolyBot

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Traders

Smart-bettor7

0x7845161180695b5741fa3d71f203eaaac497417b

Realised P&L
$5.8k
Volume
$1.18M
Markets traded
518
Open portfolio
$15.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded518
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration68.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.4800.515$3.3k+$223.30
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? · Yes0.9090.885$3.2k$89.41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · No0.8670.885$1.9k+$37.95
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.8400.875$1.8k+$73.56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.7850.775$1.5k$19.97
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? · No0.5340.615$1.2k+$150.43
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.3530.569$1.1k+$430.87
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · No0.6560.660$811.30+$4.22
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · No0.3080.235$501.01$155.59
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.1470.205$410.09+$115.70
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · No0.8800.915$67.80+$2.59
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? · Yes0.1390.089$23.06$12.66
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yes0.8200.000$0.00$492.00
Raptors vs. Wizards · Raptors0.7200.000$0.00$432.00
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes0.5690.000$0.00$1.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 10:17Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?BUY0.66$532.78
09-17 10:17Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?BUY0.65$274.30
09-17 10:10Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.79$790.00
09-17 10:10Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.78$15.60
09-17 10:09Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.78$759.06
09-17 09:43Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?BUY0.87$1.3k
09-17 09:43Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?BUY0.86$531.35
09-16 21:21Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?BUY0.91$27.30
09-16 21:20Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?BUY0.9$110.45
09-16 21:20Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?BUY0.85$5.60
09-16 21:20Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?BUY0.84$8.40
09-16 21:05Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?BUY0.55$236.50
09-16 21:00Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?BUY0.53$763.67
09-16 20:58Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.84$1.8k
09-16 19:22Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.48$3.1k