Smart-bettor7
0x7845161180695b5741fa3d71f203eaaac497417b
- Realised P&L
- $5.8k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 518
- Open portfolio
- $15.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded518
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.6kat 0.154Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$7.2kat 0.200Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
- +$2.1kat 0.629France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5
- +$1.9kat 0.761Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.8kat 0.693Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:17 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $532.78 |
| 09-17 10:17 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $274.30 |
| 09-17 10:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $790.00 |
| 09-17 10:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $15.60 |
| 09-17 10:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $759.06 |
| 09-17 09:43 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.3k |
| 09-17 09:43 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $531.35 |
| 09-16 21:21 | Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.91 | $27.30 |
| 09-16 21:20 | Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.9 | $110.45 |
| 09-16 21:20 | Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.60 |
| 09-16 21:20 | Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.40 |
| 09-16 21:05 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $236.50 |
| 09-16 21:00 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $763.67 |
| 09-16 20:58 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.8k |
| 09-16 19:22 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.1k |